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This is weird.

My previous experiences with limited-entry races have been good so far. My name was drawn in the lottery in the 2014 Tahoe Rim Trail Run, and I had enough of a quicky clicky mouse finger to gain entry to the 2015 Umstead 100.

Now I’ve chosen to put myself on a race wait list. Mind you, this isn’t a case of me not getting chosen through a drawing or clicking fast enough. The Run Rabbit Run 100 doesn’t have an entry lottery (yet), but by the time I decided I wanted to give it a go, all the slots were taken and there were already 30-some people on the wait list.

I’ve moved up a bit in the past few weeks, but still:

Run rabbit Run race wait list

Honestly, having done this before, I don’t know what the chances are of that many people forfeiting their registrations. With 30 people ahead of me on the race wait list, and 300 entrants, that’s a 10% turnover before I get the shot to run. That sounds like a lot.

How likely is that to happen?

I know I’ll just keep plugging away at my free-form “training” approach, and that not having any idea of which race(s) I’ll be doing this fall won’t change anything in the here and now, but it’s a slightly odd state of mental limbo to be in: I’m confident I’ll be running SOMETHING challenging in a few months… I just don’t know exactly what.

Interestingly, I noticed that the race organizers give a future race entry fee credit to anyone who gives up their spot prior to August 15. I would assume that anyone who has registered but is thinking they’re not going to be able to run (due to injury, scheduling conflict, budgetary constraints, loss of appetite, etc.) would wait until just before August 15 to be absolutely sure they’re not going to run. There’s no real incentive to doing so now, so why not wait until August 15 just to see if circumstances change…

Does anyone out there know if the race had a wait list last year and, if so, what the turnover was like?